U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook January 2026

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook January 2026

Jan 2026

Key Takeaways

  • After three years of underperformance, CRE allocations are below target for most institutional investors.
  • Private CRE values troughed in late 2024 and remained approximately flat in 2025. We expect average price growth of 4.9% in 2026.
  • The recovery has been uneven, and the gap between outperforming and underperforming property types and markets may widen in 2026.
  • Risks from persistent inflation, uneven population growth and a K shaped economic recovery remain.
  • New opportunities could emerge as construction pipelines reset, financial conditions gradually ease, and policy dynamics continue to evolve.

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook January 2026