U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook – H2 2026

William Pattison, Head of Research & Strategy, Real Estate; Michael Steinberg, Senior Director, Real Estate Research; Carsten Raaum, Director, Real Estate Research; Jacob Kurosaki, Associate, Real Estate Research; Kiel Deitrich, Associate, Real Estate Research; Jack Hendry, Analyst, Real Estate Research
Oct 2026

The commercial real estate recovery continues, as slowing construction improves the occupancy outlook across property types and supports income growth. However, rising interest rates are clouding the near-term picture, with higher bond yields expected to weigh on capital markets activity. In the latest “U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook,” MetLife Investment Management explores the market, sector and demographic trends shaping opportunities today.

Key takeaways:

  • Over the next two years, we expect an improvement in income growth across sectors as low construction pipelines leads to very little new product being delivered.
  • We forecast gross unleveraged total returns of 5.0% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027.
  • We expect Senior Housing, Retail Net Lease, Manufactured Housing, Malls and Medical Office to be the top-performing sectors.
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook – H2 2026